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新建液化天然氣出口終端浪潮或?qū)⒋驌籼烊粴鈨r(jià)格
點(diǎn)擊次數(shù)：596 發(fā)表時(shí)間：2023-3-21
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中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)
中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)2023年3月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，業(yè)內(nèi)分析師表示，全球范圍內(nèi)將在本十年中期上線的大量液化天然氣出口項(xiàng)目，將與成本較低的可再生能源和復(fù)興的核電行業(yè)展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這可能會(huì)影響天然氣價(jià)格，并影響一些擬議中的液化天然氣項(xiàng)目。
擬議和批準(zhǔn)的新液化天然氣廠將使全球液化天然氣年供應(yīng)量從2021年的水平增加67%，至2030年前的6.36億噸，屆時(shí)可能會(huì)使全球天然氣市場(chǎng)飽和。
美國(guó)著名液化天然氣出口商切尼爾能源公司首席執(zhí)行官杰克·富斯科上周在休斯敦舉行的一次能源會(huì)議上表示：“目前世界上正在建設(shè)的天然氣基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施價(jià)值超過(guò)一萬(wàn)億美元。天然氣市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期轉(zhuǎn)變，天然氣將繼續(xù)存在?！?
在卡塔爾，一個(gè)大規(guī)模的液化天然氣擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目到2027年前將年增4900萬(wàn)噸液化天然氣。根據(jù)FactSet公司BTU Analytics匯編的數(shù)據(jù)，到2027年底前，美國(guó)項(xiàng)目的液化天然氣年產(chǎn)能可能增加1.25億噸 (164億立方英尺/天)。
從這些項(xiàng)目可能面臨的潛在波動(dòng)中可以看出，去年液化天然氣價(jià)格因歐洲強(qiáng)勁需求而飆升，但隨后隨著庫(kù)存增加以及客戶抵制高價(jià)格并轉(zhuǎn)向其他能源而下滑。
這種轉(zhuǎn)變只會(huì)加速。據(jù)說(shuō)氣候智庫(kù)Ember估計(jì)，僅在2021年，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電在全球發(fā)電中所占的份額就從一年前的1%躍升至10%以上。
與此同時(shí)，全球核能發(fā)電正在反彈：日本計(jì)劃到2030年前將核能發(fā)電在電力中所占的比例從去年的不到7%提高到至少20%。法國(guó)計(jì)劃在2035年前建造6座新核電站。
需求的不確定性
業(yè)內(nèi)分析師認(rèn)為，液化天然氣價(jià)格在2027年左右之前將保持強(qiáng)勁，但在那之后，由于需求前景不明朗，液化天然氣價(jià)格可能會(huì)下降。
標(biāo)普全球(S&P Global)全球天然氣戰(zhàn)略主管邁克爾·斯托帕德表示：“業(yè)內(nèi)關(guān)注的一大不確定性是，高價(jià)格對(duì)中期天然氣需求造成了多大損害。”
由于價(jià)格飆升，標(biāo)普全球?qū)⑿屡d市場(chǎng)液化天然氣的需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期推遲了兩年。
美國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融分析研究所（IEEFA）2月份在一份報(bào)告中表示，液化天然氣“獲得了一種昂貴且不可靠燃料的聲譽(yù)”，這可能危及在需求前景最高的亞洲建設(shè)新液化天然氣進(jìn)口終端的計(jì)劃。
由于疫情防控和價(jià)格波動(dòng)，亞洲大國(guó)去年液化天然氣的進(jìn)口量減少20%。IEEFA稱，印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉國(guó)去年也把液化天然氣采購(gòu)總量削減16%。
處境危險(xiǎn)的項(xiàng)目
在美國(guó)，由于今年北半球冬季相對(duì)溫和，加之液化天然氣價(jià)格上漲，導(dǎo)致美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格低于新生產(chǎn)成本，導(dǎo)致鉆井活動(dòng)減少，天然氣市場(chǎng)在今年年初出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。
埃森哲戰(zhàn)略主管Muqsit Ashraf預(yù)計(jì)，到2027年前后，強(qiáng)勁的需求將支撐液化天然氣價(jià)格。
曾負(fù)責(zé)埃森哲戰(zhàn)略全球能源業(yè)務(wù)的Ashraf說(shuō)：“在那之后會(huì)發(fā)生什么，更多的是一場(chǎng)辯論，取決于今年的投資決定如何發(fā)展?！?
主要液化天然氣設(shè)備供應(yīng)商美國(guó)貝克休斯公司今年1月份曾警告稱，成本通脹和利率上升放緩了液化天然氣項(xiàng)目最終投資決定的步伐。
不過(guò)，貝克休斯公司預(yù)計(jì)今年獲批的液化天然氣項(xiàng)目數(shù)將“大幅增長(zhǎng)”。今年的第一個(gè)獲批的液化天然氣項(xiàng)目是在3月13日，Venture Global LNG公司批準(zhǔn)了其2000萬(wàn)噸/年的Plaquemines液化天然氣項(xiàng)目的第二階段。
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于，這個(gè)項(xiàng)目將在需求增長(zhǎng)放緩并沖擊全球液化天然氣價(jià)格之際投產(chǎn)。
向液化天然氣出口商供應(yīng)天然氣的美國(guó)天然氣管道運(yùn)營(yíng)商Williams Companies首席執(zhí)行官Alan Armstrong表示：“當(dāng)你聽(tīng)到人們說(shuō)‘我們不可能過(guò)度建設(shè)’時(shí)，那就是事情過(guò)度發(fā)展的時(shí)候了?！?
李峻 編譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Wave of new LNG export plants threatens to knock gas prices
A flood of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects due online worldwide in mid-decade will vie against lower-cost renewable energy and a revived nuclear power sector, which could rock gas prices and hurt some proposed projects, analysts say.
Proposed and approved new LNG plants would boost LNG supply by 67% increase to 636 MMtpy by 2030 from 2021 levels, potentially saturating the gas market.
"There's over a trillion dollars of natural gas infrastructure being built in the world today. There's a set secular shift and natural gas that is here to stay," said Jack Fusco, CEO of LNG exporter Cheniere Energy at a conference in Houston last week.
In Qatar, a massive LNG expansion project will add 49 mtpa by 2027. U.S. projects could add 125 MMtpy (16.4 Bft3d) of capacity by late 2027, according to data compiled by BTU Analytics, a FactSet company.
In a taste of the potential volatility those projects might face, LNG prices last year soared on European demand, then slid as storage filled and customers pushed back against the high prices and switched to other energy sources.
That shift is only going to accelerate. In 2021 alone, wind and solar's share of global power generation jumped to more than 10% from just 1% a year earlier, climate think tank Ember estimates.
At the same time, nuclear is rebounding: Japan aims to boost nuclear's share of its power to at least 20% by 2030 from less than 7% last year. France is proposing to build six nuclear reactors by 2035.
DEMAND UNCERTAINTY
Analysts see LNG prices remaining strong until around 2027, but after that they may fall as the demand outlook is hazy.
"One big uncertainty the industry is focused on is how much damage the high prices has done to medium term gas demand," said Michael Stoppard, who leads global gas strategy at S&P Global.
S&P Global pushed back its demand growth outlook for LNG from emerging markets by two years due to the spike in prices.
LNG has "acquired a reputation as a costly and unreliable fuel" that could jeopardize plans to build new import terminals in Asia, the region with the highest demand outlook, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in a report last month.
The biggest country in Asia cut its LNG purchases by 20% last year on COVID-19 curbs and price volatility. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh also slashed combined LNG purchases by 16% last year, IEEFA said.
PROJECTS AT RISK
In the U.S., gas markets saw a volatile start to the year after a relatively mild northern hemisphere winter and higher LNG prices which led to conservation sent U.S. prices below the cost of new production and led to a retrenchment in drilling.
Muqsit Ashraf, who leads Accenture Strategy, expects solid demand to support LNG prices through around 2027.
"What happens after that is more of a debate and depends on how investment decisions play out this year," said Ashraf, who previously headed Accenture's global energy practice.
Baker Hughes, a major LNG equipment supplier, warned in January that cost inflation and higher interest rates had slowed the pace of LNG final investment decisions.
Still, it anticipates "significant growth" in project approvals this year. The year's first came on Monday, with Venture Global LNG authorizing the second-phase of its 20 mtpa Plaquemines LNG project.
The risk is projects will come on line just as demand growth slows and hit global LNG prices.
"When you hear people say 'there is no way we will overbuild this,' that's when things get over-built," said Alan Armstrong, CEO of U.S. gas pipeline operator Williams Companies which supplies gas to LNG exporters.